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Premier League Run-in: Psychology of Title-Chase vs Relegation Battle

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I'm not going to make this a long blog post, but hopefully one that will generate some discussion. I'd like to share an observation about this year's English Premier League run-in, and the psychology of the teams at the top and bottom of the league. I can't say I'm close enough to it all to add any special insight..

For the first time that I can really recall, the three teams in contention at the top - Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea - are all performing to a really high-level right to the finish. Manchester United started poorly and had a minor wobble recently, Liverpool and Chelsea lost it mid-season but all three are fighting it out to the end, trading wins and unusually no-one is slipping up. Should that continue Manchester United will win the title in the next couple of games, but Liverpool and Chelsea are doing their bit.

Meanwhile, life at the bottom, in the midst of the relegation battle, is rather different. Normally one team will respond to the pressure and steer themselves (sometimes almost miraculously) out of trouble, just as West Ham (Tevez vintage) did a couple of years back. This year, the bottom three teams, joined by Hull in 4th bottom, appear to be universally "caught in the headlights", unable to respond. The fact that West Brom have won a few games, I believe, will prove to be an irrelevance, and that they are only performing because they were so far off the pace that the pressure was off.

As I write this Newcastle look like they might just secure 3 points and give themselves a chance. But will they take it??

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Rob Robson
Co-founder, iStadia.com
Rob Robson on Twitter
Tags: english premier league, football, manchester united, psychology, relegation battle, run-in
Posted May 11, 2009 at 1:45 PM by robrobson | Permalink | Comments(4)

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You haven't included the mackems (Sunderland to the uninitiated) who are also in dire trouble. I think you have to include resources as well as psychology. West Brom, Boro and Hull really don't have the resources so can be excused to a great extent whereas Newcastle and Sunderland do and shouldn't be there in the first place. West Brom, Boro and Hull have stuck with their managers and are really making the best of it but just aren't good enough. Hull made a great start but were always going to suffer towards the end of the season owing to their small squad. The stark reality of the Toon is that they are just a basket case even though I will support them to my dying day. However whether they stay up or do down, if they stick with Shearer (and he decides to stay), long term stability might just begin to turn this great club in the right direction. West Brom, Hull and Boro have what appear to be good managers too so the bottom line IMO is resources. In Newcastle's and Sunderland's cases it's management (Newcastle 4 managers this season, Sunderland 2).

Keith

Keith Irving
iStadia
Posted by keithirving | May 12, 2009 at 3:21 AM
I guess the main point was that I can't recall seeing at the same time a) 3 teams playing so well right to the finish and b) 3-4 teams (plus) none of which seems to be making much of a run to get out of trouble. Usually someone at the tops would slip up. Yes, resources are much greater, but there seems to be a case for arguing that all 3 teams at the top are showing a great deal of mental toughness under pressure, while at the bottom no team has (yet) really shown that they can lift themselves when needed. Maybe Newcastle will still prove to be that team (and maybe WBA will prove me wrong).

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Rob Robson
Co-founder, iStadia.com
Rob Robson on Twitter
Posted by robrobson | May 12, 2009 at 4:16 AM
Like you , Rob, I have no first hand experience of the woes and joys of relagation and promotion in sport. I can imagine, along with Keith, that limited resources are an issue, add to which limiting beliefs can also be included. The situations that created the relegation zone position for some clubs earlier in the season have yet to be resolved. All personel involved are doing the best they can with the resources they have currently. It's just that some have more resourceful states than others.

Allan Bancroft, Sports Hypnotherapist Essex & Suffolk.
01206 391193
Posted by allanban | May 12, 2009 at 5:43 AM
I guess that it's just simplistic to look at one or two factors when the whole thing is quite complicated. I do take the point that momentum has a significant effect and the top 3 do seem to have it at the moment. I think that another factor is the improvement in football played by more than half the teams in the EPL whilst last year, in my view, only the top 4 consistently provided quality football. This has left those that didn't improve - particularly Boro and the Toon particularly exposed. WBA and Hull were promoted and it's a huge step up to effectively either change the team or get the whole squad to step up a notch though Stoke to their credit have managed it. I suspect that unless they step up another gear they will repeat Reading's performance and struggle the following season.
To me one signifant factor that does stand out on it's own is the effect that a world class manager - Gus Hiddink has had on Chelsea - same team, same resources, same structure. The difference just clever tactics and man management (read motivation). Simple really isn't it!!!!!!
It will be interesting to see if Shearer who really hasn't had a chance to prove anything other than try by experimentation to find a playing team (it worked against Boro for the first time), introduce some old fashioned discipline (sorely needed) and real geordie passion can have the same effect. I pray that he can.

Keith

Keith Irving
iStadia
Posted by keithirving | May 13, 2009 at 5:05 AM

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