Can Andy Murray Win the Australian Open?

The first Grand Slam tennis tournament of the year, the Australian Open, begins tomorrow and the pre-tournament jousting has begun.

Andy Murray, having won the "World Championships" (an exhibition tournament in Abu Dhabi) and the Qatar Open already, is the form player on the tour just now, and he has certainly been the centre of attention out in Melbourne, but it would be foolish to rush to conclusions on the evidence of those events.

The BBC's graphic (below) shows, however, that his form doesn't just just extend to a few matches since the turn of the year. Indeed, not only is his win percentage the highest of the 'Big Four' (including Nada, Federer and Djokovic) but he has beaten all three of them in that time.

Nadal has a history of slow starts to the year, but you would be mad to rule him out. Defending champ Djokovic has lost twice already this year, having changed his racquet (surely it's just a racquet :)). Federer, of course, is still very capable of winning Grand Slams, as he showed Murray at the US Open. And Murray, of course, has yet to win any Grand Slam.


Yet so much of the attention is on Murray now, and so must a great deal of expectation. How will Murray handle that? He has seemed to be on good form in the media build-up (behind his "dour" Scottish exterior there is a good deal of humour in Murray), but us Scots don't have a great history of dealing with expectation (at least when it comes to our true love, football).

Indeed, expectations are a key ingredient of anxiety (according to Reversal Theory), which can be detrimental to performance. In key matches, including some of his latest victories against Federer, Murray has been slow to get going. That could be a sign of anxiety - or not. Unless we read his mind, or have his closest counsel, we can't be sure. What is interesting is that sometimes he seems to become more comfortable and play better when he is down - perhaps when he "shouldn't" win he is more likely to, if that makes any sense?

Anyway, if Murray can keep his sense of humour, keep his mind in the moment, and keep a sense of reality - he is, after all, still the pretender to the throne rather than the King of the court - then he might just do it.

It is more likely that the winner will be decided more by psychology than physical condition. 2007 into 2008 saw Andy Murray drastically improve his physical conditioning so that he could compete with the best. If he continues to add maturity to his game in 2009 as he did in 2008, then this could be the year he breaks into the grand slam winners' club.

Will he win in Melbourne? I don't know, do I?!?

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Rob Robson
Co-founder, iStadia.com