The psychology of the Premier League run-in: Some thoughts

This weekend Manchester United put themselves into pole position to retain their Premier League title after beating Liverpool 3-0. They are now five points ahead of Chelsea and six ahead of Arsenal, after Chelsea came back to defeat the Gunners.

What can we expect of the run-in? What is the psychology involved? Well, as anyone credible will tell you, we're not in the business of mind reading, and the only way to know is to ask those involved, but here are my thoughts as an external observer.

Manchester United have players who have been there before, even among some of their younger players. Of course their manager, Alex Ferguson is also vastly experienced in handling these kind of situations, so it is hard to see them choking completely, particularly if they keep their minds firmly focused on the things that they need to do well to win their remaining games, and don't look too far ahead. The fact that they still have to play their two closest rivals is what keeps this race most interesting.

Mind you, I would be surprised if they didn't give their opponents even the smallest of opportunities to close the gap in the coming weeks. If they do, Chelsea should have confidence from great run of form and a squad that is back to full strength. It is often easier to chase than to be chased, and Chelsea might just relish being in this position. This weekend's game, should put questions over the ability of Avram Grant to one side, even if temporarily. Chelsea don't slip up much, and in this kind of tight situation, they will be well positioned to take advantage of any opportunities presented. Sometimes Chelsea seem to lack creativity and flair, but their solidity and strength wil count for a lot.

Arsenal looked well on course for the title just a couple of months ago, and (even if this is unfair on Man United) probably had the support of the football purists. However, a run of draws and defeat at Chelsea mean that they are now outside bets. Having arguably choked over recent weeks, Arsenal are back in a situation where the pressure is off. They are now the underdogs and might prefer it that way. It might just help them to remove the shackles and play as they did in the first half of the season - irresistably. Arsenal certainly shouldn't be written of yet.

Of course, there's so many variables still at play. All three teams are still involved in the Champions League. All still have to play against teams that are fighting for their own suvival, and that can create unpredictable results. And key players could stil pick up injuries.

Would I bet against Manchester United? Probably not, but I still think the season's end could be a real cracker.

Rob Robson

Chartered Sport & Exercise Psychologist
Co-founder of iStadia