Who will win the Masters at Augusta?

Will Tiger Woods win the Masters? After reading about the prediction of a result after taking a view of the psychology of leadership and unrelatedly being asked my opinion of who would win the Masters this weekend, I thought I would put the two together. Predicting winners based on a psychological view - dangerous but interesting (and not meant to be hard science for all you purists out there!).

Jason Sobel of ESPN has ranked all 96 competitors. He is a knowledgeable golf journalist but after all his analysis he has come up with the usual suspects: Tiger Woods and Phil Mickleson at 1 and 2.

His top ten is:
1. Tiger Woods
2. Phil Mickleson
3. Paul Casey
4. Luke Donald
5. Steve Stricker
6. Padraig Harrington
7. Retief Goosen
8. Zach Johnson
9. Andres Romero
10. Geoff Ogilvy
Other notable players are Stewart Cink (11), Ian Poulter (12), Justin Rose (33), Oliver Wilson (48) and Boo Weekly (49).

If Tiger is in contention and by contention when speaking of Woods I mean within 10 shots of the lead on the final day, then he will be favourite. At the press conference he was asked 'Do you expect to win' and dead pan he replied 'Always'. His mental strength so superbly exhibited when he won the US Open last year with that excurciating injury to his knee is second to none.

Most of the players ranked in the world's top 20 are capable of winning the Masters eg. Stricker who has the short game to do it but do they have the mental toughness to see it through coming down the stretch with TW breathing down their necks. Paul Casey listed at no. 3 has just come off a win in the Shell Houston Open but whilst his potential is still to be fully explored I don't believe he has enough drive or is mentally tough enough - he has the confidence though. 

The guys that can play at this level when it really matters are Padraig Harrington and Geoff Ogilvy not forgetting Retief Goosen who has been there before. Harrington is chasing his third major in succession popularly now known as the Paddy Slam!.

The three young pretenders Danny Lee (32), Rory McIlroy (15) and Ryo Ishikawa (77) are still teenagers but only McIlroy has a chance and now has the mental game to compete for a major.  

One guy who I thought would just enjoy the lifestyle despite what he says but has now proved me wrong with his incredible performance in last years Ryder Cup is Ian Poulter (12). If he keeps his game together and really wants it, then watch out!

Of course just to upset the apple cart, a player who is out of contention on the final day may play freely enough to post a 65 after which the wind could come up  and all of a sudden wins the green jacket but this is unlikely.

Based on mental toughness and always assuming their technical game is there, my contenders are:
1. Tiger Woods
2. Phil Mickelson (if TW is not in contention)
3. Geoff Ogilvy
4. Padraig Harrington
5. Ian Poulter
Outsiders Rory McIlroy, Retief Goosen

Keith

Keith Irving
iStadia