Basketball
Was Your Child Born To Be A Sports Superstar?
Of all of the decisions parents face regarding their children's future, choosing between shoulder pads or running shoes for their Christmas present seems trivial. Well, according to Kevin Reilly, president of Atlas Sports Genetics, this is a decision you should not take lightly.
"If you wait until high school or college to find out if you have a good athlete on your hands, by then it will be too late," he said in a recent New York Times interview. "We need to identify these kids from 1 and up, so we can give the parents some guidelines on where to go from there."
In
December, Reilly's company began marketing a $149 saliva swab test for
kids, aged 1 to 8, to determine which variant of the gene ACTN3 is in their DNA. According to a 2003 Australian study,
ACTN3 was shown to be a marker for two different types of athletic
prowess, explosive power or long endurance. While everyone carries the
gene, the combination of variants inherited, one from each parent,
differs.
Science of success
The R
variant of ACTN3 signals the body to produce a protein,
alpha-actinin-3, which is found exclusively in fast-twitch muscles. The
X variant prohibits this production. So, athletes inheriting two R
variants may have a genetic advantage in sports requiring quick,
powerful muscle contractions from their fast-twitch muscle fibers.
In the ACTN3 study, Dr. Kathryn North and her lab at the Institute for Neuromuscular Research of the University of Sydney looked at 429 internationally ranked Australian athletes and found significant correlation between power sport athletes and the presence of the R variant. All of the female sprint athletes had at least one R variant, as did the male power-sport athletes. In fact, 50 percent of the 107 sprinters had two copies of the R variant.
North's team also noted that the elite endurance athletes seemed to be linked to the XX variation, although only significantly in the female sample. In 2007, her team pursued this link by developing a strain of mice that was completely deficient in the alpha-actinin-3 protein similar to an athlete with an XX allele. They found the muscle metabolism of the mice without the protein was more efficient. Amazingly, the mice were able to run 33 percent farther than mice with the normal ACTN3 gene.
Cloudy future
Additional research is showing mixed results, however.
In 2007, South African researchers found no significant correlation between 457 Ironman triathletes, known for their endurance, and the XX combination. This year, Russian researchers at the St. Petersburg Research Institute of Physical Culture also failed to establish the XX-endurance performance link among 456 elite rowers but did find the RR connection among a sample of Russian power sports athletes.
So, can we at least find the next Usain Bolt among our kids?
"Everybody wants to predict future athletic success based on present achievement or physical makeup. But predicting success is much more difficult than most people think," Robert Singer, professor and chair of the department of exercise and sport sciences at the University of Florida warns in the book "Sports Talent" (Human Kinetics Publishers, 2001) by Jim Brown.
"There are too many variables, even if certain athletes have a combination of genes that favors long-range talent," Singer said. "A person's genetic makeup can be expressed in many different ways, depending on environmental and situational opportunities. Variables such as motivation, coachability, and opportunity can't be predicted."
Destiny?
Just
as we assume that kids that are at the 99 percent percentile in height
are destiny-bound for basketball or volleyball, having this peek into
their genome may tempt parents to limit the sports choices for their
son or daughter.
Even Mr. Reilly expressed his concern in the Times article: "I'm nervous about people who get back results that don't match their expectations," he said. "What will they do if their son would not be good at football? How will they mentally and emotionally deal with that?"
For those parents that are just not ready to discover the sports
destiny of their child, or just want to save the $150, there is a much
simpler alternative. Hold your son or daughter's hand, palm up. Measure
the lengths of their index finger and their ring finger. Divide the
former by the latter. According to John Manning, professor of
psychology at the University of Central Lancashire, if the ratio is
closer to .90 than 1.0, you may have a budding superstar.
Manning explains in his aptly named new book, "The Finger Book" (Faber and Faber, 2008),that the amount of a fetus' exposure to testosterone in the womb determines the length of the ring finger, while estrogen levels are expressed in the length of the index finger. According to Manning's theory, more testosterone means more physical and motor skill ability.
The digit ratio theory, as it is known, has been the subject of more than 120 studies to find its effect on athletic, musical and even lovemaking aptitude.
Don't worry if the ratio is closer to 1.0, which is by far the norm. Plus, you will be able to relax, enjoy your kids' sports events and only worry about their genetic disposition to being happy.
Please visit my other articles on LiveScience.com and Sports Are 80 Percent Mental
Sideline Raging Soccer Moms (and Dads!)
From: Sideline Raging Soccer Moms (and Dads!)
Sports Are 80 Percent MentalVisit any youth soccer field, baseball diamond, basketball court or football field and you will likely see them: parents behaving badly. Take a look at this Good Morning America report:
These
are the extremes, but at most games, you can find at least one adult
making comments at the referee, shouting at their child, or having a
verbal exchange with another parent. Thankfully, these parents
represent only a small percentage of those attending the game. Does
that mean the others don't become upset at something during the game?
Usually not, as there are lots of opportunities to dispute a bad call
or observe rough play or react to one of these loud parents. The
difference is in our basic personality psyche, according to Jay Goldstein, a kinesiology doctoral student at the University of Maryland School of Public Health. His thesis, recently published in the Journal of Applied Social Psychology
(see reference below), hypothesized that a parent with
"control-oriented" personality would react to events at a game more
than a parent with an "autonomy-oriented" personality.
According to Goldstein, defending our ego
is what usually gets us in trouble when we feel insulted or take
something personally. At youth sports games, we transfer this pride to
our kids, so if someone threatens their success on the field, we often
take it personally. The control-oriented parent is more likely to
react with a verbal or sometimes physical response, while an
autonomy-oriented parent is better able to internalize and maintain
their emotions. This "control" vs. "autonomy" comparison has also been
seen in research on "road rage", when drivers react violently to
another driver's actions.
Goldstein and his team focused their
research on suburban Washington soccer parents back in 2004. They
designed a survey for parents to fill out prior to watching a youth
soccer game that would help categorize them as control or
autonomy-oriented. Immediately after the game ended, another survey
was given to the parents that asked about any incidents during the game
that made them angry on a scale of 1, slightly angry, to 7, furious.
They were also asked what action they took when they were angry.
Choices included "did nothing" to more aggressive acts like walking
towards the field and/or yelling or confronting either the referee,
their own child, or another player/parent. 53% of the 340 parents
surveyed reported getting angry at something during the game, while
about 40% reported doing something about their anger.
There was a direct and significant
correlation between control-oriented parents, as identified in the
pre-game survey, and the level of angry actions they took during the
game. Autonomy-oriented parents still got mad, but reported less
aggressive reactions. As Goldstein notes, “Regardless of their
personality type, all parents were susceptible to becoming more
aggressive as a result of viewing actions on the field as affronts to
them or their kids. However, that being said, it took
autonomy-oriented parents longer to get there as compared to the
control-oriented parents.”
So, now that we know the rather obvious
conclusion that parents who yell at other motorists are also likely to
yell at referees, what can we do about it? Goldstein sees this study
as a first step. He hopes to study a wider cross-section of sports and
socio-economic populations. Many youth sports organizations require
parents to sign a pre-season "reminder" code of conduct, but those are
often forgotten in the heat of the battle on the field. Maybe by
offering the same type of personality survey prior to the season, the
"control-oriented" parents can be offered resources to help them manage
their tempers and reactions during a game. Since referees were the
number one source of frustration reported by parents, two solutions are
being explored by many organizations; more thorough referee training
and quality control while also better training of parents on the rules
of the game which often cause the confusion.
Sports contests will always be emotional, from kids' games all the way up to professionals. Keeping the games in perspective and our reactions positive are tough things to do but when it comes to our kids, it is required.
Goldstein, J.D., Iso-Ahola, S.E. (2008). Determinants of Parents' Sideline-Rage Emotions and Behaviors at Youth Soccer Games. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 38(6), 1442-1462. DOI: 10.1111/j.1559-1816.2008.00355.x
Stats Vs. Hunches - The Moneyball Era In Sports
From: Stats Vs. Hunches - The Moneyball Era In Sports
Sports Are 80 Percent Mental
Most baseball general managers live in obscurity most of their careers. Its
their first hire, the manager, that usually gets the red hot spotlight,
after every win and loss, second-guessed by reporters with recorders
and then later by fans. The GM puts the players on the field and lets
the manager and his coaches take it from there. Billy Beane
, Oakland A's general manager, could have also been an unknown, albeit
interesting, name to the baseball audience if it were not for author
Michael Lewis' 2003 book, Moneyball
. Moneyball was a runaway hit (even today, 5 years later, it is #19 on
Amazon's list of baseball books). It has morphed into a full-fledged
catchphrase philosophy used by everyone from Wall Street (where Beane
borrowed the concept) to business consulting. The general theme is to
find undervalued assets (ballplayers) by focusing on statistics that
your competition is ignoring. Of course, you have to believe in your
metrics and their predictive value for success (why has everyone else
ignored these stats?) The source of most of Beane's buried treasure of
stats was Bill James and his Sabrmetrics. Like picking undervalued
stocks of soon to explode companies, Beane looked for the diamond in
the dust (pun intended) and sign the player while no one was looking.
Constrained by his "small-market" team revenues, or maybe by his
owners' crowbar-proof wallets, he needed to make the most from every
dollar.
The combination of a GM's shrewd
player selection and a manager who can develop that talent should
reward the owner with the best of both worlds: an inexpensive team that
wins. This salary vs. performance metric is captured perfectly in this
"real-time" graphic at BenFry.com
. It connects the updated win-loss record for each MLB team with its
payroll to show the "bang for the buck" that the GMs/managers are
getting from their players. Compare the steep negative relationship
for the Mets, Yankees, Tigers and Mariners with the amazing results of
the Rays, Twins and Beane's own A's. While the critics of Moneyball
tactics would rightly point to the A's lack of a World Series win or
even appearance, the "wins to wages" ratio has not only kept Beane in a
job but given him part ownership in the A's and now the newly
resurrected San Jose Earthquakes of soccer's MLS. Beane believes the
same search for meaningful and undiscovered metrics in soccer can give
the Quakes the same arbitrage advantage. In fact, there are rumours
that he will focus full-time on conquering soccer as he knows there are
much bigger opportunities worldwide if he can prove his methods within
MLS.
In baseball, Beane relied on the
uber-stat guru, Bill James, for creative and more relevant statistical
slices of the game. In soccer, he is working with some top clubs
including his new favorite, Tottenham-Hotspur,
of the English Premier League. While he respects the history and
tradition of the game, he is confident that his search for a
competitive advantage will uncover hidden talents. Analytical tools
from companies such as Opta in Europe and Match Analysis
in the U.S. have combined video with detailed stat breakdowns of every
touch of the ball for every player in each game. Finding the right
pattern and determinant of success has become the key, according to
Match Analysis president Mark Brunkhart as quoted earlier this year,
"You
don't need statistics to spot the real great players or the really bad
ones. The trick is to take the players between those two extremes and
identify which are the best ones. If all you do is buy the players
that everyone else wants to buy then you will end up paying top dollar.
But if you take Beane's approach - to use a disciplined statistical
process to influence the selection of players who will bring the most
value - then you are giving yourself the best chance of success. Who
would not want to do that?"
Not to feel left out (or safe from scrutiny), the NBA now has its own sport-specific zealots. The Association for Professional Basketball Research (APBR)
devotes its members time and research to finding the same type of
meaningful stats that have been ignored by players, coaches and fans.
They, too, have their own Moneyball-bible, "The Wages of Wins " by David Berri, Martin Schmidt, and Stacey Brook. David Berri's WoW journal/blog
regularly posts updates and stories related to the current NBA season
and some very intriguing analysis of its players and the value of their
contributions. None other than Malcolm Gladwell, of Tipping Point and
Blink fame, provided the review of Wages of Wins for the New Yorker.
One of the main stats used is something called a player's "Win Score"
which attempts to measure the complete player, not just points,
rebounds and assists.
Win Score (WS) = PTS + REB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST – FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF. (Points, Rebounds, Steals, Blocked Shots, Assists, Field Goal Attempts, Free Throw Attempts, Turnovers, Personal Fouls)
WS is then adjusted for minutes played with the stat, WS48. Of course,
different player positions will have different responsibilities, so to
compare players of different positions the Position Adjusted Win Score
per 48 minutes or PAWS48 is calculated as: WS48 – Average WS48 at
primary position played. This allows an apples to apples comparison
between players at a position, and a reasonable comparison of players
value across positions. Berri's latest article looks at the fascination with Michael Beasley and some early comparisons in the Orlando Summer League.
Will
these statistics-based approaches to player evaluation be accepted by
the "establishment"? Judging by the growing number of young,
MBA-educated GMs in sports, there is a movement towards more efficient
and objective selection criteria. Just as we saw in previous evidence-based coaching articles , the evidence-based general manager is here to stay.
