NFL Football Betting Review
The sports betting public, or at least those who love their NFL betting, had a good day overall on Sunday. The NFL picks fell the public’s way, as the favorites went 10-5 against the spread on Sunday, which usually means a winning day for bettors.
Looking back at the NFL action, two of the unbeatens came out of the day with a loss attached to their record. Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons lost to New England, while San Francisco lost an absolute heartbreaker in the final seconds to the Vikings. The 49ers did cover the pointspread, which was 6 ½ (that looked like one of the Best Bets of the week) but to let Favre throw a 32-yard TD on the last play of the game is unforgivable. You have got to be able to defend against a pass that far out with no other options but to go to the end zone. The 49ers held Adrian Peterson in check keeping him under 100 yards and were playing a solid road game up until the last minute. But that Niner team is looking good, despite the defensive lapse.
The Patriots covered the spread (4 ½ points) beating the Falcons 26-10 to drop them to 2-1 on the season. The linesmakers set this Over/Under lines at 46, and by game time, online sportsbook was reporting that 57% of all the wagering volume on the Total was bet on the “Over”. But it was the “Under” bettors who cashed tickets when the final gun went off, as the two teams only combined for 36 points, as the Patriots contained Matt Ryan and Michael Turner, holding Turner to just 56 yards on 15 carries, and limiting TE Tony Gonzalez to one catch for 16 yards. Brady was efficient but it was the Patriot defense and the running game that was the difference.
Seven teams remain undefeated, led by the surprising NY Jets who beat the equally surprising Tennessee Titans, 24-17. The Jets covered the pointspread (2.5 points) Mark Sanchez became the first rookie quarterback since the AFL-NFL merger to win his first three games. It was a sloppy win but the Jets made the plays, on both offense and defense, when it mattered.
The Jets will get a test this week when they travel to face New Orleans. Looking at the early NFL lines, New York has been installed as a 6.5-point underdog and the early betting action is leaning to the home side. The Titans now find themselves three games behind the Colts who continue to throw at will on teams.
The Colts played in Miami for last week’s Monday Night Football matchup, and were lucky to come away with the win after only having the ball for 15 minutes, yet scoring 27 points. To go across the country on a short week and another marquee timeslot against the NFC champs and beat the Cards 31-10 is a sure sign that the Colts are on track with new head coach Jim Caldwell.
Arizona was a 2.5-point home favorite on Monday night vs. the Colts, with the online betting action being pretty even at sportsbook by the time the game kicked off. Peyton Manning is on fire throwing for three straight 300 plus yard games and he had four TDs. In his last 12 regular season games the Colts are 12-0 with Manning throwing 24 TDs against five picks. Early indications are that he is on his way to another MVP.
There will only be at best six unbeaten teams next week as the 3-0 Saints hosts the 3-0 Jets dropping one team to 3-1. There are a few marquee games next week featuring the struggling Steelers going on the road as early 6.5 point favorites against San Diego in a must win for the Steelers. In one of the most anticipated games of the season the Vikings are 3.5 point favorites as they host the Packers.
Check all the NFL Lines and enjoy the NFL action this week and good luck with your sports betting.
NFL Betting: NFL Rookie of the Year Betting
Two games into the NFL season and the Rookie of the Year NFL future odds have been shaken up a little as the sports betting community re-evaluates based on a couple of early performances.
One rookie has really stood out in Week 1 and 2 and his stock has risen amongst sports bettors. Jets’ quarterback Mark Sanchez is that guy. While many rookies are still just trying to get on the field or are the second and third options in an offensive scheme, the Jets top pick has led his team to two upset victories.
Sanchez began the season with NFL odds of 8-1 to win Rookie of the Year, but is now the front-runner. Sanchez served notice in his league debut when he threw for 272 yards and a touchdown in Houston against the Texans, who many felt are set to become a top team in the AFC. He followed up that performance in Week 2 with a strong second half showing; outperforming Patriots QB Tom Brady in leading the Jets to their first win in nine tries at home against New England.
Sanchez has settled right in and performed well beyond his years. He is the talk of the town and after two games looks like he has the tools to be an impact player – but yes, it is still early.
Online sportsbook reported solid action coming in on Sanchez after his pre-season performances, but the betting really heated up the last two weeks.
The Lions QB Mark Stafford was also listed at 8-1 NFL odds and has shown flashes of his gifted ability, but he unfortunately plays for the Lions. Stafford and the Lions have lost their first two games, making it 19 straight for this sad-sack franchise dating back to last year. Stafford has the luxury of throwing to Calvin Johnson who is one of the top five receivers in the game. They hooked up in Week 2 for Stafford’s first career touchdown pass and they will become a dynamic duo over the next few seasons. Stafford has his work cut out for him with the Lions, and in the rookie contest against Sanchez.
Going into the season, the odds on favorite at 3-1 to win the award was Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno. Running backs have won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award 10 out of the last 16 years and Moreno was the top back drafted out of Georgia.
In his first game against the Bengals on the road he found the going rough, gaining only 19 yards on carries. In Week 2 against the porous Browns defense he rushed for 75 yards on 17 carries. He is splitting time with former Eagle Correll Buckhalter, Peyton Hills and former Jet Lamont Jordon. He will get his touches as he is also an above average receiver out of the backfield but there are a lot of Broncos clamoring for the ball so his numbers might not be as gaudy as others.
The Cardinals drafted Chris Beanie Wells with their first round pick looking to bulk up their running game. Coach Ken Whisenhunt is a fan of the smash mouth running game and Wells is a perfect addition to slasher Tim Hightower. Wells unfortunately had two fumbles in Week 2 against the Jaguars. He had fumbling issues in college so he will need to sort that issue out if he has any chance of hanging with the top rookies.
The Colts Donald Brown is thought to be a perfect compliment to Joseph Addai, giving the Colts a dynamic one-two punch out of the backfield. He was listed at 7-2 but the Colts are going to be a pass first team again this year as their offensive line is a work-in-progress and isn’t opening any holes for the rushing game. Brown will be counted on to catch passes out of the backfield and as the season moves forward he will start to put up more all-purpose yards.
The Vikings look to have struck gold with Florida Gators rookie Percy Harvin who is listed at 12-1. He had a nice game against the Lions catching five balls for 41 yards and his second touchdown of the young season. He could have the best chance of beating Sanchez because he has Brett Favre throwing him the ball and Adrian Peterson running the ball, which requires defenses to play tighter at the line of scrimmage. Harvin also has the speedster Bernard Berrian on the outside, which will free up Harvin for more opportunities. Favre already seems to like getting him the ball.
The Giants Hakeem Nicks listed at 18/1 suffered a foot injury in game one and is out until week four. He caught two balls in his debut before spraining his foot. The Giants are a well-balanced team so Nicks will get opportunities to make plays once back but missing three games will hurt his chances.
After Week 2 Sanchez is the clear-cut favorite but Percy Harvin will keep this contest honest. Harvin is an explosive part of an explosive offense that will give him chances to make some highlight reel plays this year.
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Dallas Cowboys Marion Barber To Miss Two Games?
Not only did Dallas lose Sunday night, RB Marion Barber suffered a strained quadriceps muscle in the fourth quarter of the game.
According to sportingnews.com, Barber will miss between one and two games, although no official word has come from the Cowboys yet.
Yesterday, the Dallas Morning News reported that the injury wasn’t serious and Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips said Barber would undergo an MRI.
If injury is indeed minor, Barber will have an extra day of rest as the Dallas Cowboys’ next game is next Monday against the Carolina Panthers–Dallas is still a 9-point home fave.
Dallas has gone 7-3 straight up in its last 10 matchups against Carolina overall. Check out latest NFL odds at online sportsbook.
NFL Football Tips – Week 2
- Watching the action in Week 1 has given sports bettor a lot to go on when they start to do their sports handicapping for Week 2 games. We’ve circled a few games with good odds to track while planning your bets.One full week of NFL football is in the books and people in the sports betting world seem to agree on one thing: 60 minutes of regular season football teaches you more about each team than 240 minutes of preseason ever could.
What did we learn from the first week of NFL football that can be of use for picking winners in Week 2?
One thing we know about the Chicago Bears is that even with Jay Cutler at QB, defense is still king in the Windy City. Since Coach Lovie Smith took over in 2004 the Bears’ defense has accounted for 21-percent of the team’s scoring (compared to league average of nine-percent). When Danieal Manning forced a safety, sacking Aaron Rodgers in the end zone in the second quarter, it looked like that unit might take over the game.
Pittsburgh is in Chicago for the Bears home opener this week and so far bettors are leaning towards the "Under" 37.5 but online sportsbook is reporting some early money showing up on the home team Bears. Bettors appear willing to give Cutler another chance at showing what he can do, this time at home.
- Atlanta couldn’t get the run game untracked vs. a stingy Dolphins D but HC Mike Smith is no fool. When Smith unleashed the passing game it was tough to defend and playing at home for the second straight week, Matt Ryan and the Falcons are now being asked to lay a TD vs. their divisional rivals, Carolina.
Things didn’t go well for QBs in Carolina, with Donovan McNabb and Josh McCown getting hurt and Jake Delhomme just plain stinking. The Eagles have signed Jeff Garcia as insurance for their home opener this week against the high-flying New Orleans Saints and online sportsbooks have been reluctant to post lines due to the injury situation. It is expected that without McNabb in the line-up the Saints will be a small road favorite.
- At this time of year a lot of bettors are dusting off old play trackers and notebooks to see how teams performed in certain situations. One of the spots worth looking at is the early body-clock, where Pacific Standard Time teams play early in the east and another factor worth considering is the weather.
- Sounds strange for September but in this case it’s not cold, wind and snow to be concerned with, more the humidity factor in cities like Jacksonville. The Jags were very good at home in September, going 16-5-1 ATS before 2007 but in the past two seasons they are 0-4 against the number. Jacksonville is a -3 point favorite at online Sportsbooks right now and with one loss already in the books we could see an extra effort out of the home side here against a visiting Cardinals team used to a much dryer climate in the desert.
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NFL Picks – Week 1
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay PackersLambeau Field – Sunday Night - NBC
Line: Packers – 3 ˝
Over/Under: 46
The oldest rivalry in football is one of the feature games from Week 1 NFL betting action. This battle goes back as far as 1923, when the first meeting resulted in a 3-0 Bears win (they covered as a 2.5-point favorite….just kidding)
This weekend’s game has a line on it of -3.5 that’s the current line at online sportsbook at SPORTSBETTING.com.
The line actually opened at -3, but steady money has been coming in on the home team Packers, pushing the line up to -3.5. Most online sportsbooks are reporting 70 to 75% of the betting volume is Green Bay money. I don’t see that changing as we get closer to kick-off, and in fact, I think this number could reach -4.
So if you like the Packers (check below for our pick on this one) you might want to get your bet in now.
The Bears head to Lambeau having won four of the last five games in Green Bay, but note that they were blown out last year 37-3 in Week 11.
In Week 16 the Bears hosted Green Bay and turned the tables beating them 20-17 in overtime.
But this year is different, as the Packers will face a Bears team that finally has a franchise quarterback. This season the rivalry is renewed with a legitimate QB showdown as Aaron Rodgers welcomes Jay Cutler to the division. This rivalry could dominate this division for the next 10 seasons.
In 2008 Rodgers threw for 4,038 yards, 28 touchdowns and just 13 interceptions for an impressive passer rating of 93.8 in his first season as the Packers starter. Cutler threw for 4,526 yards, 25 touchdowns and 18 interceptions last year for a passer rating of 86. Both quarterbacks have big arms and can make any throw required to move the offense.
Green Bay has more weapons for Rodgers to spread the ball around and he had a good year with this group last season. The Bears offer Cutler two very good tight ends in Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark who might be the best tight end tandem in the NFL. The wide-receiving position is average however with all-pro punt returner Devin Hester penciled in as number one and second year receiver Earl Bennett as number two. Matt Forte has a great shot to improve on his 1200-yard season in 2008 with Cutler now in the fold.
But still, edge to the Packers.
The Packers brought in defensive guru Dom Capers to run the defense. He has switched the team over to a 3-4 scheme. The defense has adjusted well in preseason but it can take some time to fully implement the change.
Former Lions coach Rod Marinelli takes over as Defensive Coordinator of the Bears. The strength of the Bears for years has been their defense. Getting DT Tommie Harris back on the field is huge for the team. Marinelli is a noted line coach and Harris has already stated that he has helped him tremendously. Both he and Brian Urlacher are looking to rebound from a sub-par 2008 season. The defensive line is average and will get pushed around. They don’t have a great pass rush other than weakside linebacker Lance Briggs, which could hurt them against the Pack. Top corner Charles Tillman is recovering from a back injury and looks good to go for the opener.
Overall, this looks pretty even, as the neither defense will be outmatched by the offense in any significant way…but the Packers do look like they can create some matchup advantages that I like.
I see Green Bay winning this game and will lay the 3 points (I’m buying the hook)
Good luck with your NFL betting this weekend.
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